Arsenal are firmly in the driving seat for their first Premier League title since 2004, boasting a near-perfect campaign with only three losses and a formidable defensive record, conceding just 17 goals in 25 games. Yet, despite the growing perception that Mikel Arteta’s side are champions-elect, there remain reasons why the Gunners might fail to see it through.

1. A Tougher Fixture List than Manchester City

While Arsenal sit six points clear of Manchester City, their remaining schedule presents a sterner test. The Gunners must face Brentford away, who hold the sixth-best home record, as well as crucial clashes against Tottenham, Chelsea, and City at the Etihad.

In contrast, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City squad have cleared most of their top-six opponents, giving them a smoother path during the run-in. Guardiola himself stressed the significance of the remaining 13 games, stating, “From my point of view, 13 games in the Premier League is a lot of time, a lot.”

2. Arteta’s Tactical Approach

Mikel Arteta’s defence-first system has transformed Arsenal into serious contenders. However, critics point to his tendency to settle for draws in big matches, potentially missing opportunities to send a statement to rivals.

How Arteta sets up against Manchester City in April could be decisive. A cautious approach might safeguard points but risk ceding momentum to Guardiola’s experienced squad.

3. Inexperience and Mentality Concerns

Arsenal’s current squad is light on Premier League-winning experience. Only Gabriel Jesus has lifted the trophy before, while other stars like Kepa Arrizabalaga and Kai Havertz have major honors but little exposure to a title run-in.

Historically, Arsenal have faltered in similar positions over the past three seasons, finishing second despite promising starts. The squad’s ability to handle setbacks — a draw or defeat in crucial fixtures — remains untested under sustained title pressure.

4. Overreliance on Key Players

Despite strengthening the squad in the summer transfer window, Arsenal still depend heavily on stars like Declan Rice, William Saliba, and Gabriel Magalhaes. Injuries or dips in form among these players could expose gaps, especially with Mikel Merino sidelined due to a season-ending injury.

Rice, in particular, is central to Arsenal’s midfield stability, and fatigue during the congested final fixtures could affect performance.

Supercomputer Predictions and the Bigger Picture

Advanced analytics, including Opta’s supercomputer, favor Arsenal overwhelmingly, giving them over a 90% chance of winning the league. Yet football remains unpredictable — fixture congestion, tactical missteps, and squad mentality could all intervene.

Manchester City, armed with experience, leadership, and a proven mentality, remain formidable challengers. Guardiola’s squad have been in these positions before, often producing late-season surges that have decided titles.

Conclusion

While Arsenal’s campaign has been remarkable, small but significant challenges remain. Fixture difficulty, tactical caution, inexperience, and player reliance could combine to derail their Premier League dreams.

As Arteta prepares his side for the final 13 games, the central question is whether the Gunners can maintain focus and composure under pressure — and finally end their 19-year title drought, or whether Manchester City will once again seize the crown.

Football fans worldwide will be watching closely — because in the Premier League, nothing is ever guaranteed until the final whistle.